Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


College of Science and Mathematics


Mathematical Sciences

Thesis Sponsor/Dissertation Chair/Project Chair

Lora Billings

Committee Member

Diana Thomas

Committee Member

Eric Forgoston


Researchers using mathematical models have made significant contributions to the field of epidemiology in recent years. These models have both explanatory and predicative power to describe disease dynamics. More recent work has considered multi-population models and the effects vaccinations have on the population as a whole. One such example can be seen in the West African country of Cameroon, which has two distinct patterns of measles outbreaks. By considering Cameroon as two subpopulations, a deterministic model is developed that includes the effect of vaccinations. Stability analysis is then performed on the model over a range of coupling and vaccination rates to establish thresholds between disease absence and persistence. Stochastic methods are then used to capture low probability events near these thresholds. We identified significant differences in vaccination rates predicted deterministically for disease absence versus vaccination rates that are effective at inducing disease absence.

File Format


Included in

Mathematics Commons