Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-1-2024
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Climate
Abstract
Although mangroves provide many beneficial ecosystem services, such as blue carbon storage and coastal protection, they are currently under threat due to changes in climate conditions, such as prolonged drought exposure. Under drought conditions, evaporation exceeds precipitation and high soil salinities can lead to stunted growth and die-back. To quantify this interplay, we developed a database for low-lying and uninhabited mangrove islands in the Caribbean under various evaporation and precipitation regimes. We extracted physical and biological information from each island using remote sensing techniques and coupled it with a process-based model. We used this database to develop a model that explains both the spatial variability in vegetated area across the Caribbean—as a function of rates of evaporation and precipitation—and porewater salinity concentration and dispersion from island edge towards the interior of mangrove islands. We then used this validated model to predict mangrove area loss associated with increases in evaporation to precipitation rates by 2100 for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Less wealthy Caribbean regions such as Belize, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela are disproportionally affected, with mangrove area losses ranging from 3%-7% for SSP 2.6 and 13%-21% for SSP 7.0. Furthermore, foregone carbon sequestration in lost biomass under SSP 4.5 and 7.0 scenarios could compromise the ability of low-lying Caribbean mangrove islands to vertically adjust to sea level rise.
DOI
10.1088/2752-5295/ad6473
Journal ISSN / Book ISBN
105002331619 (Scopus)
MSU Digital Commons Citation
Cortés, Isamar M.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge; Rovai, Andre S.; Twilley, Robert R.; Chopping, Mark; and Fatoyinbo, Temilola, "Net evaporation-induced mangrove area loss across low-lying Caribbean islands" (2024). Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works. 757.
https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/earth-environ-studies-facpubs/757
Published Citation
Cortés, I. M., Lorenzo-Trueba, J., Rovai, A. S., Twilley, R. R., Chopping, M., & Fatoyinbo, T. (2024). Net evaporation-induced mangrove area loss across low-lying Caribbean islands. Environmental Research: Climate, 3(4), 045004.
Comments
This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.