Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-19-2026

Journal / Book Title

Land

Abstract

Nepal has undergone significant land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes from 2000 to 2020, driven by urbanization, agricultural shifts, and broader socioeconomic dynamics. This study analyzes historical changes and projects LULC dynamics for 2030, 2040, and 2050 across four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Urban Development (RUD), Forest Degradation and Terai Contraction (FDTC), and Agricultural Land Abandonment and Ecological Recovery (ALER). A CA-Markov modeling framework in TerrSet was used to simulate future land-use patterns, utilizing scenario-specific transition probability matrices and spatial constraints to reflect different socio-economic and policy assumptions. Under the BAU scenario, land-use change remains moderate, characterized by gradual urban expansion and limited forest decline. On the contrary, the RUD scenario predicts a drastic expansion of built-up areas by about 1.44 million ha, along with significant losses of cropland, bare soil, grassland, and forest, reflecting intensified development pressure. The FDTC scenario emphasizes agricultural expansion at the expense of forests, while urban growth remains limited. Conversely, the ALER scenario demonstrates strong ecological recovery driven by cropland abandonment and secondary vegetation regeneration, resulting in notable expansion of forest and other woody land. Overall, these four scenarios reveal sharply divergent land-use trajectories, ranging from rapid urban transformation to ecosystem restoration. These contrasting land-use pathways highlight the critical importance of integrated land-use policies that can proactively manage urban expansion, safeguard high-value agricultural and forest landscapes, and promote ecological restoration through incentives for agricultural land abandonment and secondary vegetation recovery, thereby ensuring long-term sustainability and climate resilience in Nepal.

DOI

10.3390/land15050873

Rights

© 2026 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.

Published Citation

Bhushal, G., & Lal, P. (2026). Modeling Alternative Futures: Scenario-Based Land-Use and Land-Cover Projections for Nepal (2030–2050). Land, 15(5), 873. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15050873

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