Document Type
Preprint
Publication Date
4-1-2022
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Finance and Economics
Abstract
A common tool in forecasting literature used in predicting future economic conditions is the term spread, which tends to contract near peaks and rise near troughs. Building on this known relationship, this paper explores the predictive power of the yield spread on the distribution of income in the United Kingdom (UK). The results reveal that income inequality responds negatively to increases in the yield spread over the medium-term. Specifically, we show that the term spread can help to predict UK's income inequality growth both in- and out-of-sample. Our empirical findings show that it is the expected component of the term spread that has predictive power for lower income inequality in the UK.
DOI
10.1002/ijfe.2254
MSU Digital Commons Citation
Balcilar, Mehmet; Berisha, Edmond; Çepni, Oğuzhan; and Gupta, Rangan, "The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis" (2022). Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works. 108.
https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/economics-facpubs/108
Rights
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2022, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 1979-1988. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2254. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/ijfe.
Published Citation
Balcilar M, Berisha E, Çepni O, Gupta R. The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2022, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 1979-1988. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2254.