Date of Award

5-2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

College/School

College of Science and Mathematics

Department/Program

Earth and Environmental Studies

Thesis Sponsor/Dissertation Chair/Project Chair

Pankaj Lal

Committee Member

Danlin Yu

Committee Member

Neeraj Vedwan

Committee Member

Michel Masozera

Abstract

Nepal is undergoing simultaneous economic, land-use, and environmental transitions driven by regional trade integration, urbanization, agricultural restructuring, and climate mitigation commitments. This dissertation adopts an integrated, scenario-based analytical framework to examine how trade liberalization influences economic performance, how alternative development pathways shape land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, and how these land-use trajectories affect forest carbon dynamics and their economic value. By combining computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, spatially explicit land-change modeling, and ecosystem service valuation, the research provides a nationally consistent assessment of development-environment trade-offs in a small, landlocked, and structurally constrained economy. The first chapter, the introduction, presents the study context, research gaps, rationale, and objectives of this dissertation. The second chapter evaluates the short-run economy-wide impacts of tariff and non-tariff measure (NTM) liberalization under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) using a CGE model calibrated to the GTAP 10 database. Gravity-based estimates of ad valorem equivalents of NTMs are incorporated to explicitly capture regulatory barriers alongside tariff reductions. Simulation results indicate that combined tariff (90%) and NTM (50%) liberalization generates positive macroeconomic adjustments for Nepal, with real GDP increasing by approximately one percent and exports rising by over 14 percent, driven primarily by manufacturing, particularly textiles, while agricultural responses vary by sectoral exposure to NTMs. The third chapter analyzes historical LULC change in Nepal from 2000 to 2020 and projects spatially explicit land-use dynamics for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under four contrasting scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Urban Development (RUD), Forest Degradation and Terai Contraction (FDTC), and Agricultural Land Abandonment and Ecological Recovery (ALER). Using a Cellular Automata-Markov modeling framework implemented in TerrSet, the results reveal sharply divergent future trajectories. BAU reflects moderate urban expansion and near-stable forest cover; RUD projects accelerated built-up growth with substantial losses of cropland and forest; FDTC emphasizes agricultural expansion at the expense of forests in the Terai; and ALER demonstrates widespread cropland abandonment and significant forest and other wooded land recovery. The fourth chapter links these scenario-based LULC projections to spatially explicit carbon accounting and economic valuation using the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model. Changes in aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil organic carbon, and dead organic matter are quantified and monetized using a constant carbon price of USD 5 per Mg C and a 3 percent discount rate. Results show that national carbon storage remains near neutral under BAU, declines substantially under RUD and FDTC, and increases markedly under ALER, resulting in large differences in net present value. Sensitivity analysis across alternative carbon prices (USD 5-15 per Mg C) and discount rates (3-7%) confirms that the relative ranking of scenarios remains robust, with recovery-oriented land-use pathways consistently generating compelling positive economic returns, whereas development- and degradation-driven trajectories result in substantial discounted carbon losses. Finally, the fifth chapter concludes this dissertation. Taken together, this dissertation demonstrates that Nepal’s long-term economic and environmental outcomes are highly sensitive to the interaction between trade policy, land-use dynamics, and forest governance. The findings highlight the importance of integrating trade liberalization with land-use planning and climate strategies, particularly REDD+, to support sustainable development, climate resilience, and long-term mitigation objectives in Nepal. More broadly, the study provides a policy-relevant and transferable analytical framework for evaluating development-environment interactions in data-constrained, land-dependent economies.

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Available for download on Tuesday, November 17, 2026

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