Date of Award
8-2026
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
College/School
College of Science and Mathematics
Department/Program
Earth and Environmental Studies
Thesis Sponsor/Dissertation Chair/Project Chair
Meghann Smith
Committee Member
Pankaj Lal
Committee Member
Clement Alo
Abstract
New Jersey's 80x50 greenhouse gas reduction target and Executive Order 316's 400,000-unit residential decarbonization commitment establish an ambitious policy horizon for building sector electrification, but the state lacks an integrated evidence base linking spatial deployment potential to environmental impact and projected statewide benefit at the scale of individual policy scenarios. This study addresses that gap by developing and applying a four-phase framework to quantify ground-source heat pump (GSHP) adoption potential across New Jersey new residential construction through 2050. The framework produces a county-level suitability ranking, a per-typology life cycle environmental impact profile, and a projection of statewide avoided emissions and monetized damages under three policy scenarios, providing an evidence base directly applicable to residential decarbonization policy design. Two analytical tools structured this study. ArcGIS Pro is used for geospatial suitability analysis, applying a multi-criteria weighted overlay across all 21 New Jersey counties on bedrock thermal conductivity, median household income, population density, and residential permit density. SimaPro is used for cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of three residential typologies (single-family, duplex, and multifamily) under the ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint (H) method against natural gas and electric resistance baselines on the current PJM Interconnection grid. The two are then combined to model GSHP deployment growth and estimate cumulative avoided greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, coupling county-suitability-weighted permit projections with a logistic diffusion model of adoption under three policy scenarios anchored to current programs, Executive Order 316, and the 2024 New Jersey Energy Master Plan. Monetized damages are calculated using EPA (2023) social cost of greenhouse gases estimates. Ground-source systems reduce global warming potential by approximately 49 to 50% relative to natural gas and 70% relative to electric resistance across typologies. Cumulative avoided emissions over the 2026–2050 window range from 586,498 metric tonnes CO2 equivalent under the Baseline scenario to 8.82 million metric tonnes under the Accelerated scenario, with monetized damage reductions between $$70.7 million and $$3.00 billion (2026 USD) depending on scenario and discount rate. The Moderate scenario aligned with Executive Order 316 delivers 4.19 million metric tonnes, exceeding the incremental cross-sector Business-as-Usual projection published by NJDEP (2023) by approximately 55%. The interval between Baseline and Moderate, 3.61 million metric tonnes and between $$433 million and $$1.23 billion, represents avoided damages already committed under existing New Jersey policy but not secured by the present deployment trajectory. Multifamily deployment produces per-installation avoided emissions 1.74 times higher than single-family deployment across all scenarios, and Ocean and Passaic counties, both classified in the Moderate suitability zone, contribute approximately 20% of avoided emissions, indicating typology differentiation and sub-High-zone geographic targeting as policy design axes that operate independently of scenario intensity.
File Format
Recommended Citation
Atolagbe, Mercy Adebola, "An Integration of Geospatial Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment for Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Adoption Potential Across New Residential Building Typologies in New Jersey" (2026). Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects. 1738.
https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/etd/1738