Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-1-2005
Journal / Book Title
Physical Review E
Abstract
Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement rADE, in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
DOI
10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201
MSU Digital Commons Citation
Schwartz, Ira; Shaw, Leah; Cummings, Derek; Billings, Lora; McCrary, Marie; and Burke, Donald, "Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases" (2005). Department of Mathematics Facuty Scholarship and Creative Works. 9.
https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/mathsci-facpubs/9
Published Citation
Schwartz, I. B., Shaw, L. B., Cummings, D. A., Billings, L., McCrary, M., & Burke, D. S. (2005). Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, 72(6 Pt 2), 066201. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201