Bonds, Stocks or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets in Brazil and Mexico

Authors

Tony Petros Spanakos, Montclair State UniversityFollow
Lucio Remuzat Renno Jr., University of BrasíliaFollow

Document Type

Preprint

Publication Date

Winter 1-2009

Journal / Book Title

APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper

Abstract

How does vote intention in presidential elections vary according to the economic conditions of a country, especially indicators of the financial market? Does the state of the economy, both its fundamentals as well as capital market, affect variation in candidates’ percentage of vote intention in national polls? This paper tests how economic indicators influence vote intention in presidential elections in two emerging markets: Brazil and Mexico. The presidential elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 in Brazil and 2000 and 2006 in Mexico are analyzed using all poll returns for each electoral period and corresponding economic data. The paper finds that no theory is capable of explaining results throughout the dataset but partisan explanations and Stokes’ (2001) categories of alternatives to retrospective voting help elucidate vote intention.

MSU Digital Commons Citation

Spanakos, Tony P., and Lucio R. Renno. "Bonds, Stocks or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets in Brazil and Mexico." (2009).

Published Citation

Spanakos, Tony P., and Lucio R. Renno. (2009) "Bonds, Stocks or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets in Brazil and Mexico." American Political Science Association 2009 Annual Meeting, Toronto.