Document Type
Report
Publication Date
12-3-2025
Journal / Book Title
Joetta Di Bella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication
Abstract
This study from Montclair State University researchers in the Joetta Di Bella and Fred C. Sautter III Center for Strategic Communication in the College of Communication and Media shows that the volume of political posts on X (formerly Twitter) may not reflect actual voter behavior. The gap between post volume about candidates and real election votes was nearly 40% in the analyzed case of the New Jersey gubernatorial election. Contributing factors to this gap may include the volume of ostensibly “American” political accounts that are foreign sourced, bot-based activity, and overall platform infrastructure/algorithms. Results identified 108,640 posts for Mikie Sherrill with 230,277 posts for Jack Ciattarelli in the period studied with nearly 5X the total number of posts for Ciattarelli over Sherrill on Election Day. Additionally, the study found 15.5% more posts on X expressing a positive sentiment for Ciattarelli in the same period. Despite this, final vote totals for the election favored Sherrill by nearly 14%.
MSU Digital Commons Citation
Benton, Bond; Luo, Yi; and Choi, Jin-A, "X versus reality: Data suggests political posts on X are inconsistent with voter behavior" (2025). College of Communication and Media Scholarship and Creative Works. 63.
https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/scom-facpubs/63