How long is too long? An investigation of preference for jail over probation in mock defendants.

Most criminal convictions are the result of a guilty plea. We investigated how mock-defendants evaluate and decide on probationary plea offers when facing potential jail sentences if convicted. Existing research shows non-carceral plea offers are a powerful predictor of guilty pleas. However, there is little data on how defendants actually compare carceral potential trial sentences with probationary plea sentences. For instance, might someone prefer to spend shorter time in jail rather than a longer time on probation? This study reports on initial data collected to inform how the functional form of a new plea decision-making model (Zottoli et al., in revision) will be expected to change when defendants are choosing between a carceral vs. probationary sentences. The aim of this research was to establish the point at which the length of probation became so long, relative to the jail sentence, that jail might be preferred. In a vignette, Amazon Mturk participants were asked to imagine that they were charged with theft. Guilt/innocence was manipulated between-subject. Participants were exposed to five trial sentences and asked to select the longest probationary sentence they would be willing to take to avoid jail. Probation ranged from 1-3x the length of the jail sentence. We then employed a forced-choice design in study 2. Results: more than half of guilty defendants would take a deal over 3x the jail sentence, whereas fewer than a quarter of innocent would. In forced choice, ~90% or more of guilty accepted the offer. Implications/future directions will be discussed.